3-0 isn't good

So, each of the last two nights at Citi Field, the Mets led 3-0 after 1 inning. That seems like a pretty nice position to be in.

According to this web-based tool, from 1977-2006 in all games played in Major League Baseball, a home team led by 3 runs after one inning 2179 times and ended up winning 1779 of those games. This corresponds to an 81.6% win expectancy for the home team. Here's a link to the output of that search. So, interestingly, in 30 years of baseball, there were exactly 300 games where a home team lost after taking an early 3 run lead, which averages out to 10 such instances in all of MLB per season.